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Fairfax profits
rbgibbons   9/18/2008   
These CDS will both hedge the equity portfolio and hopefully overcome that problem for Fairfax. Richard ...
Fairfax profits
Partner24   9/18/2008   
Stubblejumper,   I'm not sure. I wonder if they wil...
Fairfax profits
Partner24   9/18/2008   
re spot on! It is so much a relief and a joy to see the Fairfax's balance sheet getting stronger!   Thanks to the FFH's management team, we are ...
Fairfax profits
StubbleJumper   9/18/2008   
At today's share prices, the gains "right now" after tax may ...
Fairfax profits
FFHwatcher   9/18/2008   
I second that.
Fairfax profits
Dazel   9/18/2008   
my point is being missed. Cheer leading...no surviving the greatest financial meltdown maybe ever. Fairfax is on the exact other side of the meltdown. Russia is closed again today.   ...
idea what the returns will be on the CDS'....that is of course up to Fairfax to decide when to sell or not...and I do not kow what they hold.....
in the credit markets. Credit default swaps spreads are at their highest in history. Fairfax has $16 billion worth notional value swaps. They have realized 21.44% over their ...
...
FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
glider3834   9/18/2008   
we can have a debate in person - I am anxious to make it to the Fairfax Financial AGM - given its the biggest investment I have I probably should make the effort ...

Fairfax profits
niels12think   9/18/2008   
then we should not forget the significant bond gains and the equity total return swaps Fairfax owns on individual common stocks (in addition to the index hedging). But most important might ...
Fairfax profits
niels12think   9/18/2008   
I think CDS on big companies are materially riskier now tha...
Dell
tiddman1   9/18/2008   
Dell is one of Fairfax's largest equity positions and is also Longleaf's largest (and has been for a ...

Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/18/2008   
(Remember, these things aren't like stock options.  Th...
Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/18/2008   
The more intriguing question is that Fairfax did note in the Q2 call that they were still at that time able to ...
Fairfax profits
rbgibbons   9/18/2008   
Actually, now that I think about it again, it's even worse t...
Fairfax profits
rbgibbons   9/18/2008   
less valuable than they were in the past.  That won't matter for positions Fairfax can sell now.  But it could matter for positions that Fairfax doesn't want ...
willing to take direct actions to ensure that CDS never pay off.   That said, Fairfax is my biggest position, and these are fun times.  Your back of the envelope ...
to me based on similar shortcut analysis.    The more intriguing question is that Fairfax did note in the Q2 call that they were still at that time able to ...
Fairfax profits
Partner24   9/18/2008   
timely manner because it is material, I would assume thats why the General Counsel of Fairfax has been quoted in every article that mentions FFH. They know what they are doing, ...
significant amount), whose cost was Y$ and the remaining value of the CDS position of Fairfax is Z$). I think it's a matter of fairness for both sides of ...
Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/18/2008   
Understanding how their portfolio is structured and how t...
Fairfax profits
smazz   9/18/2008   
Nice write-up Shah, enjoyed your commentary.
Fairfax profits
oldye   9/18/2008   
just thinking about the discussion that we had over the last ...
Fairfax profits
mungerville   9/18/2008   
I am with Dazel.  My focus is ORH but percentage-wise&n...
Fairfax profits
viking   9/18/2008   
Dazel, I agree. Look at what FFH has made on the CDS positio...
Fairfax profits
Shah_Khezri   9/18/2008   
timely manner because it is material, I would assume thats why the General Counsel of Fairfax has been quoted in every article that mentions FFH. They know what they are doing, ...
Fairfax profits
Dazel   9/18/2008   
You can't reasonably extrapolate the performance of the CDS that Fairfax sold to the rest of the portfolio.  Presumably they sold the most profitable positions ...
you not seeing this?   Prem would not be appalled...I would think that the Fairfax team would be thinking of nothing else this week. We are talking about the biggest ...
profit Fairfax has possibly ever made. Make no mistake the swaps are not only material to Fairfax ...
...
Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/17/2008   
You can't reasonably extrapolate the performance of the CDS that Fairfax sold to the rest of the portfolio.  Presumably they sold the most profitable positions ...
Fairfax profits
uccmal2   9/17/2008   
I would think there is a magnitude of difference between rea...
Fairfax profits
Dazel   9/17/2008   
nbsp; There could not be better timing for a hard market in insurance for Fairfax...If the claims are high for the industry they will make more $$$ in the future ...
Fairfax profits
ucw101   9/17/2008   
How much of those record gains this quarter will be offset b...
SEC acts on Naked Short Selling!
smazz   9/17/2008   
Is it legal for Fairfax to buyback a lot of share before a major press release on huge gains. They ...

Fairfax profits
uccmal2   9/17/2008   
Yeh, they do.... From randian, smazz, barminov et al (not me...
Fairfax profits
lessthanIV   9/17/2008   
Goldman and Morgan Stanley both tanked today and I understan...
SEC acts on Naked Short Selling!
Partner24   9/17/2008   
Is it legal for Fairfax to buyback a lot of share before a major press release on huge gains. They ...
SEC acts on Naked Short Selling!
mills-man   9/17/2008   
Is it legal for Fairfax to buyback a lot of share before a major press release on huge gains. They ...
$1 Billion in Gains at FFH?
viking   9/17/2008   
Securities Inc. analyst Jeff Fenwick said in a note to clients Wednesday that Toronto-based Fairfax Financial Holdings Inc. could realize more than $1-billion in gains as a result of ...
The swaps amount to bets that those institutions' financial positions will deteriorate." "We believe that Fairfax's CDS investments combined with its large holdings of index total return swaps could easily ...

FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
Partner24   9/17/2008   
Fairfax AIG CDS position is a little bit clearer now:   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...
news?pid=20601082&sid=aCUxiQhK4NrU&am   Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. , the Canadian insurer whose shares have climbed almost 9 percent this week, ...

SEC acts on Naked Short Selling!
Dazel   9/17/2008   
5% on the naked short rules....They have difficult economics in their business right now. Fairfax is at the top of their game...we shall see but the short battle that ...
find a final ending at levels of short selling that make sense. This time However, Fairfax is as well capitalized and as full of cash as it has ever been. Should ...
be very interesting. especially if Fairfax were to put out a press release with thier bond and cds' gains. They are ...

FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
Cardboard12   9/17/2008   
Fairfax shareholders need to salute the AIG bail-out. IMO, a failure of AIG would have ...
Berkshire Hathaway can survive such event and even thrive, but I am not sure about Fairfax.   Fairfax can hold all the CDS that they want, but if the entire insurance ...
balance sheet values, this could have been a very big problem. At least enough for Fairfax to have to curtail on a large scale its underwriting activities.   So in a ...
...

Fairfax profits
rbgibbons   9/17/2008   
You can't reasonably extrapolate the performance of the CDS that Fairfax sold to the rest of the portfolio.  Presumably they sold the most profitable positions ...
that in the summer of 2006, you bought equal sized positions in LEAP calls of Fairfax, Cisco, Intel, Dell, and AIG.  By Christmas of that year, you've made a ...
30-bagger on your Fairfax calls, so you sell them.  At that point, would it be reasonable to assume ...

FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
niels12think   9/17/2008   
according to Fairfax Q2 report, the company had synthetic short positions in various global equity indices and listed ...
knows which common stocks or how to find out? My own feeling is that Fairfax negative sentiment on individual companies might be deducted from the disclosed CDS positions, and that ...
Fairfax might also have taken out total return swaps on the common stocks of these names. ...
FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
glider3834   9/17/2008   
I would be absolutely SHOCKED if Fairfax did not sell a good portion of their AIG CDSs , while keeping some for reinsurance ...
purposes.   The spreads for the last several days have been absolutely massive.   Fairfax sold their bond insurers and I remember Prem saying that the risks and rewards were ...
this time the potential for US govt intervention & Federal action has been extremely high. Fairfax has had enough time to close most of its positions.   Why wait for bankruptcy ?? &...
...
FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
Partner24   9/17/2008   
Well, I wouldn't like to sound too pessimistic, but when a spokeman of Fairfax says specificaly that we were holding AIC CDS as of today, I would be surprised ...
FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
tiddman1   9/17/2008   
This really demonstrates the volatility in CDS. Fairfax's CDS positions were probably wildly profitable yesterday and for part of today, and might ...
Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/17/2008   
Smazz, you are right about Abitibi. Anyway, Abitibi, be...
Fairfax profits
n-tres-ted1   9/16/2008   
The LIBOR rate more than doubled today, and the real funds ra...
Fairfax profits
oldye   9/16/2008   
I'm pretty sure aig isn't a counterparty to our CDS against t...
Fairfax profits
SharperDingaan   9/16/2008   
Keep in mind that the AIG problem is primarily abo...
Fairfax profits
Dazel   9/16/2008   
even higher than then realized in the past.   That being said... knowing how prudent Fairfax is they will take or have taken the profits....  AIG will have to ...
FFH appears to still be holding AIG CDS
viking   9/16/2008   
to AIG: http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080916.wmanulife0916 "Separately, a spokesman for Fairfax Financial Holdings confirmed Tuesday the Toronto-based insurance conglomerate holds credit default swaps on AIG. ...
essentially bets that AIG's financial condition will worsen, and have been rising in value. Fairfax had made numerous similar bets on financial institutions, a move that has proved profitable as ...

Fairfax profits
smazz   9/16/2008   
yes OEC, you are most likely correct, I just wanted t...
Fairfax profits
oldye   9/16/2008   
Cheers from Vegas!
Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/16/2008   
Anyway, I am also looking at NB again   Hi...
Fairfax profits
smazz   9/16/2008   
I had an order in on Friday @ 211 - missed it by about 10min...
Fairfax profits
SanjeevParsad   9/16/2008   
in 2003-2004.    In fact they aren't just huge, the rise at Fairfax has been nearly as dramatic as the recent demise of some of our financial giants.&...
nbsp; But economic gains do not outweigh the sheer reputational gain Fairfax has made during this period.  They have gone from has-been outcast to ...
Fairfax profits
KFRCanuk   9/16/2008   
=== SanjeevParsad Let's just hope for a billion. === Lets hop...
Fairfax profits
oec10210   9/16/2008   
Their notional value at July 25th was 15.893 billion...if ...
Fairfax profits
SanjeevParsad   9/16/2008   
vision of a creating a new Berkshire Hathaway will be realized.   Don't think Fairfax will be like Berkshire.  It really will be closer to AIG during its glory ...
Fairfax profits
tooskinneejs   9/16/2008   
From CNBC today:   http://www.cnbc.com/id/267379...
Fairfax profits
Partner24   9/16/2008   
t know. We can anticipate everything we want, but we'll not really know until Fairfax release something.   Let's wait, have modest hopes, and see...         ...
Fairfax profits
Broxburnboy   9/16/2008   
We are living in interesting times for FFH. As yesterday's se...
Fairfax profits
Partner24   9/16/2008   
But, man, 4 billions!! I'm just crossing my fingers&nbs...
Fairfax profits
Partner24   9/16/2008   
say the least!   If it's the case, then I don't know if Fairfax should disclose it, because it's very volatile stuff. But if the gains were realized ...
Fairfax profits
Dazel   9/16/2008   
It should be noted off the start I am long Fairfax. The unprecedented bond movement of late should move the Fairfax US treasury bond gains in ...
is the sky rocketing cost of credit default swaps. The move has been ridiculous. Historically Fairfax has recovered 21.44% of the notional amount of the their cds' or 1.4 ...
on the bonds you own. The answer is yes. That is why AIG swaps which Fairfax has owned and likely still owns...are worth so much. It would be nice if ...
...
ORH CDS Portfolio
barminov   9/16/2008   
chance.   I've said this before but I have the sneaking suspicion that these Fairfax guys know what they are doing. My money is where my mouth is. "Diversification may ...
ORH CDS Portfolio
benhacker99   9/15/2008   
Crum & Forster 156.6  (100%) Odyssey 172.3 (65%) Runoff 156.1 (100%) Fairfax 708.9 So you would expect FFH gains to be (0.6 * 83.7)+(...
ORH CDS Portfolio
niels12think   9/15/2008   
millions): Northbridge 83.7 Crum & Forster 156.6 Odyssey 172.3 Runoff 156.1 Fairfax 708.9 To me, it seems that the numbers doesn't add up unless there ...
ORH CDS Portfolio
tiddman1   9/15/2008   
Are all of the CDS held at Odyssey? NAIS doesn't show any data for "Fairfax". There are some statements available for 2008 Q2 for "Odyssey Amer Reins Co". Do you ...
FFH short interest increases again
SanjeevParsad   9/15/2008   
Hey, the main thing is that Fairfax didn't lose any money today.  They have so much dry powder that Prem'...
FFH short interest increases again
Dazel   9/15/2008   
Al.   As you know I have loved Fairfax for a longtime....and have been pretty close on their asset movements....I would like ...
Fairfax Financial 2009 AGM!
SanjeevParsad   9/15/2008   
Fairfax has moved their AGM for 2009 across the street to the MTCC (Metro-Toronto Convention ...
year...rightfully so!  The information is below:   The annual meeting of shareholders of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited will be held on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 at 9:30 a....

WFC Should Consider Buying AIG!
Partner24   9/15/2008   
I'm wrong) Prem Watsa met personaly a lot of senior underwriters of Fairfax and basicaly said to them to write quality and at underwriting profit only insurance ...
tough to change it. And I think it could be a bad Well Fargo, Markel, Fairfax, etc. decision to buy it. If I would hear the news tomorrow, I would ...

FFH short interest increases again
Shah_Khezri   9/15/2008   
Tomorrow will be the epitome of a Triple Waterfall day for Fairfax 1. Treasury's rallying 2. CDS spreads will widen 3. Our equity hedges S.K....
FFH short interest increases again
Crip_1111   9/13/2008   
bevy of monitors? Stick to the guns, look for teriffic businesses selling for good prices. Fairfax fits that mold. If the shorties out there drive the stock down, take advantage of ...
it and buy more. Fairfax will not climb from $212 to $300 in a day, or in a week, but ...
FFH short interest increases again
Cardboard12   9/13/2008   
improved dramatically the price to value ratio of my portfolio.   So looking at Fairfax (I have no position at the moment), the balance sheet is stronger than it was, ...
as LEH or insurers such as AIG? Probably because like some of us, they know Fairfax better than AIG and their knowledge/confidence of opportunities has brought them to place a ...
FFH short interest increases again
dmangan   9/12/2008   
experience, companies who sue short sellers are just shooting the messenger. Is it really in Fairfax's interest (and mine as a shareholder) for them to do this? http://www.bloomberg....
3 Random Thoughts
Cardboard12   9/12/2008   
Asper seems to like his empire: he wants to retain everything at all cost. Even Fairfax did let go the crown jewel or some of Northbridge when they needed cash. So, ...

FFH short interest increases again
mills-man   9/11/2008   
The actual price of Fairfax don't reflect the improvement made last two years. I'm happy with results and ...
with leverage. For what we can know , it's really not the case for Fairfax. Something hide on our book? It's the only one point to ...
inquiry it would be so surprising . Oil market is falling like a stone. If selling Fairfax is a bet against inflation (continuous commodity boom) they are in trouble now. ...

Gwynn fired from Morgan Keegan!
Crip_1111   9/11/2008   
issue of the lawsuit is whether Mr. Gwynn was bribed to spread false information about Fairfax,” she said in an e-mailed statement. “We continue to believe that the lawsuit is ...
Gwynn fired from Morgan Keegan!
Broxburnboy   9/11/2008   
throw the dispute to the tender mercies of the tort resolution process.. a scary proposition. Fairfax really had no choice but to sue, they will probably prevail in the courts, but ...
Gwynn fired from Morgan Keegan!
bsilly0   9/10/2008   
It's been quite interesting to watch the 'foes of fairfax' one by one having their characters revealed in very public ways. I'm interested to ...
know what others here think the odds are at this point. Will Fairfax win? Maybe I'll set up a web poll. ...
Say It Ain't So Larry!
bsilly0   9/10/2008   
Sanjeev, you and I all went for a bite & drink after one of the Fairfax annual meetings with Jordan and some others. As you know, in person, Jordan is nothing ...
but congenial. At the height of the Fairfax short and distort campaign, he was one of the big defenders of Fairfax along with ...

Gwynn fired from Morgan Keegan!
SanjeevParsad   9/10/2008   
nbsp; It does not look good for Gwynn though.  Cheers!   Morgan Keegan Fires Fairfax Analyst on Early Report Disclosure 2008-09-10 15:03:07.760 GMT   By ...
it fired stock analyst John Gwynn in August for giving his reports on Canada's Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. to selected clients before publication. Fairfax had sued Morgan Keegan, Gwynn and ...
SAC Capital Advisors LLC in July 2006, alleging they had ganged up to drive down Fairfax's shares and profit from the decline. The defendants have denied the claims. Fairfax said ...
...
Gwynn fired from Morgan Keegan!
SMC9196   9/10/2008   
it fired stock analyst John Gwynn in August for giving his reports on Canada's Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. to selected clients before publication.      Fairfax had sued ...
SAC Capital Advisors LLC in July 2006, alleging they had ganged up to drive down Fairfax's shares and profit from the decline. The defendants have denied the claims.   &...
nbsp;  Fairfax said Gwynn, 62, collaborated with the hedge funds to write negative reports on the Toronto-...
...
ICO down .....
alertmeipp8   9/10/2008   
That's good for Fairfax, they can pick and choose. ...
ICO down .....
Partner24   9/10/2008   
should like dumbness because it creates opportunities for those who have capital available. Hello Fairfax, Berkshire and others!  Very interesting to see what's going on.   Cheers! ...
Commutation accounting
bsilly0   9/9/2008   
reinsurers for a clue) is overstated compared to one that does not. The quality of Fairfax' book value number today is much more 'solid' it was a few years ago. ...
Commutation accounting
bsilly0   9/9/2008   
ve been through this before, but I can't remember if it was on the Fairfax board, or here. I'm not sure I can find it, so I'll tax ...
long tail claims, the difference can be quite large. For sake of example lets say Fairfax lays off $1 billion of claims payable 10 years in the future for a premium ...
of $500 million. Under Canadian GAAP, Fairfax would book the loss, $1 billion. They then pay $500 million in cash (drawing down ...
...
FFH to buy Polish Re-insurer
ericopoly   9/9/2008   
why is this reinsurer being purchased by Fairfax instead of Odyssey Re?   So that we get the whole pie and don't ...
FFH to buy Polish Re-insurer
Cardboard12   9/9/2008   
this acquisition raises a big question mark: why is this reinsurer being purchased by Fairfax instead of Odyssey Re?   Within Fairfax, everything related to reinsurance is done by Odyssey ...
Re. The only exception is Group Re which reinsures internal business: "reinsurance of Fairfax’s subsidiaries by quota share or through participation in those subsidiaries’ third party reinsurance programs ...
Odyssey Re and nowhere else.   One can say that knowledge flows freely throughout the Fairfax organization, but then it seems pointless to have Odyssey Re operating as a stand alone ...
...
Freddie and Fannie & FFH CDS
bsilly0   9/8/2008   
benhacker, I agree, as I see it there is no value for Fairfax from CDS on Fannie & Freddie at this point. It will be interesting to see ...

FFH to buy Polish Re-insurer
StubbleJumper   9/8/2008   
potential beach-head to access the Russian market. We already have seen the success of Fairfax Asia. And we frequently talk about the valuable position in ICICI Lombard. Prem's momma ...
FFH to buy Polish Re-insurer
Shah_Khezri   9/8/2008   
POL   Overall, they will probably  get a rating upgrade as a sub of Fairfax, with that increased premium.    S.K. ...
ORH to FFH
ericopoly   9/7/2008   
of $14.4m.  This is important to understand because today we care about how Fairfax will do on a forward-looking basis (runoff is dwindling today).   2005 numbers: &...
nbsp; Total Fairfax pre-tax loss $521.5m Runoff losses $535.9m (excluding Group Re losses from ...
combined ratios for the operating subs both with and without the hurricane losses: http://www.fairfax.ca/Assets/Downloads/Press/fpr2006-02-09.pdf       ...

ORH - block trade >2M shares???
Cardboard12   9/5/2008   
now with all the good news and the discount to book (which remains). Considering that Fairfax is now appreciably cheaper relative to book value and that I now consider unlikely that ...

ORH to FFH
ericopoly   9/4/2008   
I would be surprised if the more purest Benjamin Graham style of Fairfax will still be as valuable as now when they will have a 100 billions ...
ORH to FFH
Partner24   9/4/2008   
much as that).   Regarding investing, past results aren't as terrific as Fairfax, but they are still very good and the way that they have achieved it ...
grow.   I would be surprised if the more purest Benjamin Graham style of Fairfax will still be as valuable as now when they will have a 100 billions ...
less small to mid-size, very cheap, average and unknown businesses at Fairfax.   I admire both businesses and they are by far my top 2 positions in ...
...
ORH to FFH
ericopoly   9/4/2008   
I would suggest that valuation for Fairfax should be considered this way. Because it is more leveraged it has more risk than ...
ORH to FFH
SanjeevParsad   9/3/2008   
100 or so posts by boardmembers, there was some debate over Tiddman's estimate of Fairfax's worth.  Can we kill this thread now?  I'm starting one on ...
ORH to FFH
tiddman1   9/3/2008   
seem to be missing the point that I'm happy to be a shareholder of Fairfax at the right price -- I'd gladly dump my position in crappy little SUAI for ...
ORH to FFH
tiddman1   9/3/2008   
just the same as they were. The whole point is looking for security mis-pricings. Fairfax's brief trips down to 50-60% of book value in the past were "event ...
I owe an enormous debt of gratitude to Peter Eavis and the other critics of Fairfax for giving me wonderful buying opportunities... We are coming up on prime hurricane season, and, ...
Is FFH a better buy now than it was in July 2006?
uccmal2   9/3/2008   
margin of safety, and growth potential, and is at least as liquid as Fairfax.  It has to be this cheap relative to book as well.  I am ...

ORH to FFH
agatesystems   9/3/2008   
there is a free lunch to be had here. I would suggest that valuation for Fairfax should be considered this way. Because it is more leveraged it has more risk than ...
ORH to FFH
SanjeevParsad   9/2/2008   
take it personal and respond in less polite ways.  This board has a huge Fairfax shareholder base.  They welcome debate on a subject.  But at some point, some ...
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